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Support for the candidates for the United States presidentiaРl УБСРИВКЕАТ
election in the Texas

WHERE IS THE DECISION aSevlueipccpttiooorntriyfnortohtfheetOhcheaionpdirdeasteidsefonrttihaelUcnaitneddiSdtaattees presidential Source: FT
ON THE WINNER MADE
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One of the basic challenges, which election in the Geor
significantly reduce the chances of the
presidential candidate of the Repub- estimated 10%. Still, elections are an
licans, Donald Trump, is the outcome act where uncertainty is the essence
in several traditionally Republican of their existence, so it is worth to fol-
and “variable” states. Above we wrote low the elections for a President of the
about one of the most important bas- United States ofAmerica on November
tions of the Republicans, Texas, as well 8th, and I hope that this manual will
as about the leadership which in the help you.
finish of the campaign Hillary man-
aged to provide in Pennsylvania, turn- Miroslav Sazdovski
ing it into a “leaning state”. Besides
these two, Trump’s campaign failed
to provide support in the “variable”
Florida, and in order to win, it must
not lose the state of Minnesota as well,
where in the past 40 years the Demo-
crats have always won (the last time
Nixon won in 1972), and where the polls
show Hillary’s advantage of more than
four percentage points. Actually, the
polls also show serious uncertainty for
the state of Arizona, which in the past
40 years, only in 1996 provided advan-
tage of 2.2 percentage points for the
Democratic presidential candidate,
Bill Clinton, and the Republicans had
won in all other cycles. This firm Re-
publican state, is currently part of the
“toss-up states”, where Hillary Clinton
has a mild leadership of 1.3 percent-
age points!? Actually, although at a
national level the polls show an ad-
vantage of approximately six percent-
age points for Hillary, the distribution
of this advantage according to states
is relatively linearly divided, which
makes Trump’s struggle dispersed and
unfeasible. The firm support from the
“solid states” and the “leaning states”
provide Hillary Clinton a start of 262
electoral votes of the required 270 to
win, therefore Trump must practically
win in all other “toss-up states”, be-
cause a victory in any of them, to Hill-
ary Clinton would imply exceeding of
the threshold of 270 electoral votes.
This is how the numerous analyses are
performed, primarily in the American
media, to which the struggle has al-
ready finished, and the probability for

November 2016