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states”. The comparison with thei- The largest of these states are Ten- WORLD
maginary European counterpart of the nessee and Indiana, which, although 73
US system is good and useful to get a they are the largest in this company,
clearer image about how the voters in bring only 11 electoral votes each, or
the United States perceive and experi- 22 in total. Furthermore, most of the
ence the presidential election. In their states where the polls show two-digit
states they have governments and Gov- leadership by Trump are states such
ernors (counterpart of presidents in as Wyoming, Dakota (North and South
the presidential systems), which close- Dakota) etc., which are small and bring
ly face the problem of voters. To the only 3 votes each. Hence, in terms of
voters, the election for a President of the initial position of the presidential
the United States of America, is rather candidates, Hillary Clinton has double
an election for national administra- advantage.
tion which takes care of the federal is-
sues and of course, about the common LEANING STATES
foreign policy, which, you will agree, is In addition to the “solid” states
very important for a country such as
the United States of America. which show firm, two-digit advantage
of the polls for one of the presidential
SOLID STATES candidates, there are also so called
If so far you partially followed the “leaning states”, where the advantage
for one candidate is one-digit advan-
electoral campaign of the United tage, however it is bigger than five per-
States, probably you’ve noticed that centage points. Such states, which are
states such as California, New York inclined towards the presidential can-
and Illinois, are not appropriately didate Hillary Clinton, are states such
treated by the campaigns of the two as Michigan, Virginia and Wisconsin,
candidates. Namely, as large states each of which respectively brings 16,
with numerous population, California 13 and 10 electoral votes. In total such
provides 59, New York provides 29 and leaning states, where the presiden-
Illinois provides 20 electoral votes for tial candidate of the Democrats, Hill-
the winner. These three states, bring ary Clinton has an advantage between
more than one third of the required 5 and 10 percentage points are ten in
electoral votes, 98 of 270, or slightly total, and all together they provide 90
less than one fifth of the total elector- electoral votes. For the presidential
al votes (538); however, in each one of candidate of the Republicans, Donald
them, the presidential candidate from Trump, such leaning states are six in
the Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton total, and all together they provide
has double-digit leadership, and for support of only 33 electoral votes. One
this reason, these states are classi- of the more interesting inclined states
fied as “solid states” on the side of the is Pennsylvania, which is a large state,
Democrats. Currently, according to and which brings 20 electoral votes. In
the distribution of powers, there are the period when this text was written,
12 counties in total for which the polls the polls showed a leadership of more
show firm leadership of the candidate than six percentage points for the can-
Hillary Clinton which provide her solid didate Hillary Clinton, which puts this
initial position of 172 electoral votes. state in the order of “inclined states”,
Donald Trump, on the other hand, as however only a month ago, Hillary’s
a presidential candidate of the Repub- advantage in this country was approxi-
lican Party, has provided firm support mately one percentage point, so this
by as much as 15 states; however, be- start was considered Toss-up state,
cause it is a matter of smaller states i.e. a state where the result was con-
according to the number of residents, sidered uncertain. Actually, if you’ve
his “solid” is only 93 electoral votes. encountered some of the analyses per-
November 2016
