Page 79 - Ekonomija i Biznis_noemvri 2016.indd
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INTERVIEW
There is an illusionist peak. All indicators show that accord- ic says, you have sufficiently wide data-
claim which we ing to the historical standards, it is a base of clients who are not only cred-
hear in our areas, matter of extreme levels of debts, and itworthy, but it is evident that they
that banks (mostly then a question is asked: And who will have a perspective in terms of the re-
with foreign capital) invest? Investments can be made only quirements for refinancing and financ-
offering favorable on the basis of firm cooperation of the ing new deals. The initial trigger can-
loans, can encourage private and the state sector provided not occur from the financial sphere,
the economic that the private sector wants to enter on the contrary, it has to come from
activity. These are this arrangement. Why provided that? the country and its resolute decision
actually replaced Because the private sector is punished should guarantee financial discipline.
theses: on the basis twice, one is the already indicated ex-
of empirical research ample of the savers, and the second If now we return to the global
I claim that the one is that the country with the men- scene and the issue of saving, we have
banks will do this tioned monetary policy creates an il- the relatively widespread phenome-
when the rate of lusion that the crisis would be left non when large companies keep great
economic growth without major fundamental research amounts of cash and they do nothing
will go upwards, and which even in the long run give results with this money.
for our region this through applied research and creation
implies a rate of at of productions with a low price. Dj. Gjuric: Many of these investors,
least 4 to 5% searching for yield, focus on securities
The creators of these public poli- which are being emitted by sound com-
cies considered that with low interest panies in countries with rising mar-
rates they will make the population kets. Conditionally speaking, where is
consider engagement in entrepreneur- the interest of our region here? The
ship because the money in mattress situation here differs from one coun-
only melts. Why didn’t this tactic give try to another, however unfortunately,
results? together we share this bad destiny that
the interest of these companies which
Dj. Gjuric: In developed countries, have surplus liquidity, would be very
small and medium enterprises from small for our area, except on the basis
Germany, and onward do not want to of bilateral arrangements. This is due
borrow. Those who are “attached” to to the high risk which is assigned to
great corporations, clearly understand our countries because we are still an
that this potential demand will not be unstable region where the interests of
there in the future and that it is not the great world forces intersect.
the time to invest in new equipment,
in technology and in new knowledge. Does it make sense in this era of
In fear of geopolitical turmoil, they negative interest rates, to dispute
tend to languish and postpone the de- about inflation which was considered
cisions for better time, when it comes, desirable to instigate growth when it is
if it does come. in small doses?
When it comes to the Balkan, there Dj. Gjuric: Let us return to FED, which
is an illusionist claim which we hear in at the end of last year announced an
our areas, that banks (mostly with for- increase of the interest rates, however
eign capital) offering favorable loans, it remains restrained because for the
can encourage the economic activity. first time in history, it doesn’t think
These are actually replaced theses: on about the national economy only, but
the basis of empirical research I claim also about the global consequences of
that the banks will do this when the such a decision. The FED is divided,
rate of economic growth will go up- some members of the Board of Gover-
wards, and for our region this implies nors say “now, must, should” because
a rate of at least 4 to 5%... because even in the long run the inflationary hot
in such conditions, as the banking log-
November 2016 79
