Page 15 - Ekonomija i Biznis_oktomvri 2016.indd

PERSPECTIVE
фото: (srilankafoundation.org)
IMF’s suggestion is for Macedonia to
start a process of fiscal consolidation,
wherewith the budget deficit for this
year would be 3.6 of the GDP (reduced by
0.4 percentage points compared to the
stipulated one), however it would reduce
to 2.5% in 2017 and 2% in 2018. The goal of
the public debt is to maintain it at the
level below 50% of GDP
cating that it expects its impairment.
IMF’s note about the stability of the judicial system
and the state administration is very serious, expressed
through the excessive political interference in the pub-
lic administration and the judiciary. It seems that this
burdens the private sector and increases the uncer-
tainty in the system for the private sector.
The World Bank indicates that the Republic of
Macedonia is the only country of the six countries in
the region that is specifically monitors (Albania, Bos-
nia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro
and Serbia) where the events with the investments
are expected to have limiting effects on the economic
growth. Namely, the political crisis which lasts for a
longer period of time, weakened the investment activi-
ty, particularly of the private sector, and its fall cannot nation of the indicated risks, then the next time when
be compensated by the movement of public finance.
Shortly speaking, the World Bank estimates that the
uncertainty about the elections started to weaken our
economy.
Some indications are of long-term nature. For ex-
ample, the IMF indicates that if we do nothing, and we
have a trend of population aging, it is projected that
the deficit in the pension system will be more than
double by 2030.
фото: (radiotamazuj.org)
The World Bank indicates that the
Republic of Macedonia is the only
country of the six countries in the
region that is specifically monitors
(Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo,
Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia)
where the events with the investments
are expected to have limiting effects on
the economic growth
Of course, the authorities in this country, whatever
they are, now or in the future, can ignore the indica-
tions of the IMF and the World Bank. We have not con-
cluded an arrangement with them in order to have an
obligation to change something. Still, aside from the
political games that we continuously see in Macedo-
nia, I would seriously understand these suggestions
by the IMF and the World Bank. Not only as attitudes
which are in accordance with the economic theoreti-
cal postulates, but also due to one very practical rea-
son. In the international financial markets, the foreign
private investors which buy Eurobonds from differ-
ent countries and borrow them money, very carefully
follow the attitudes of the IMF and the World Bank.
When the IMF and the World Bank will explain and
suggest something, and the country does not act in this
manner, that is, it does not work actively on the elimi-
this country would want to issue a new Eurobond and
borrow new money, the potential investors will deter-
mine a new price for such a loan. Of course, the new
price will be higher. The costs of this higher prices and
the higher amount of interest that the country will
have to pay will be borne by everyone who lives in this
country.
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