Page 14 - Ekonomija i Biznis_oktomvri 2016.indd
P. 14
PERSPECTIVE
Zoran Jovanovski
What do the IMF
and the World
Bank actually
recommendus?
“I would like the IMF and the World in the medium term, continued growth of
Bank to disappear soon”, Hugo Chavez, the Macedonian economy is expected.
the former president of Venezuela once
stated. Of course, in the meantime the On the other hand, for some matters
IMF or the World Bank did not disappear, we are facing serious concern of the IMF
rather it was Venezuela’s economy which and the World Bank. I will indicate only
almost disappeared, for which a real fall few. The fact that Macedonia for several
of the GDP of 8% is stipulated for this year, years maintains high budget deficit and
and in 2017, a fall by additional 4.5%. My has a quickly growing public debt, reduced
point is that the IMF and the World Bank the space for maneuvers in the conduct-
should not be observed with a compet- ing of the fiscal policy. In other words, if
ing spirit, with emotions, but rather with some unfavorable impact on the economy
mind. Someone may like or dislike their occurs, the fiscal policy will not be able to
attitudes, however every country should relax the budget policy, in order to lead
think well about what it is being told and counter-cyclical policy and to facilitate the
it should have a proactive role. In this re- abandoning of the crisis. For this reason,
gard, the IMF and the World Bank recently IMF’s suggestion is for Macedonia to start
expressed some of their views in regard to a process of fiscal consolidation, where-
the Macedonian economy. with the budget deficit for this year would
be 3.6 of the GDP (reduced by 0.4 percent-
Macedonia was praised for some things, age points compared to the stipulated
and this is encouraging. For example, the one), however it would reduce to 2.5% in
resistance of theMacedonian economy 2017 and 2% in 2018. The goal of the pub-
is praised because it experienced several lic debt is to maintain it at the level below
shocks in the past years, including the do- 50% of GDP. Of course, this is not easy and
mestic political crisis. The monetary pol- simple at all, however the IMF indicates
icy was positively assessed, as well as the specific possible measures: increase of the
moves of the National Bank and the level collection of revenues in the budget and
of foreign exchange reserves. The stabil- reduction of the expense by reducing the
ity of the banking sector in this country, subsidies and the budget transfers and an
its capitalization and resilience was also increase of the efficiency of spending in
praised. The World Bank expects continu- health and education. The World Bank
ation of our import of goods. In addition, notes the issue of the fiscal position, indi-
14 October 2016
