Page 9 - Ekonomija i Biznis_oktomvri 2016.indd

The leading composite index predicts Leading composite index
the economic activity on the basis of
combination of indicators that are Further slowdown
considered predecessors of the economic of the Macedonian
activity with a prognosis period of
approximately six months in advance. economy?
Some indicators combined with this
index include the following: number of
unemployed people who are registered for a
remuneration, issued construction permits,
index of new orders in the manufacturing
industry, loans placed on enterprises,
import of machines and equipment etc.

In June 2016 the leading composite index Leading composite index
for prognosis of the future economic Diffuse index of future economic activity
activity continued to stagnate. The monthly
dynamics of the index declined with 0.5
index points, while the annual dynamics
experienced a growth of only 3.9 index
points, which is a significant deceleration
compared to the previous months when
this number was more than 8. The impaired
condition of the import of machines and
equipment, the reduction of the amount
of corporate loans and the narrowing of
the interest span is the main driver of these
movements. In their opinion, the economy
may experience further deceleration by the
end of this year and the beginning of next
year.
The diffuse index of the future economic
activity is an indicator of the share of the
composite index components for the
future economic activity, which increased
during the month. According to this index,
in June 2016, more than two thirds of the
components reduced.

Source: by order of Economy and Business.
www.financethink.mk

October 2016 9