Page 9 - Ekonomija i Biznis_noemvri 2015.indd

The leading composite index forecasts LEADING INDICATORS
the activity of the Macedonian economy
by combining indicators that are believed LEADING COMPOSITE INDEX
to lead the economic activity with a OF THE MACEDONIAN
forecasting period of approximately six ECONOMY
months in advance. Some of the indicators
combined by this index are: the number LEADING COMPOSITE INDEX
of unemployed persons who register for
monetary compensation, the number of DIFFUSED INDEX OF FUTURE ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
issued construction permits, the index of
new orders in manufacturing, the loans
extended to the companies, the imports of
machinery and equipment, etc.
In August 2015, the leading composite index
of the activity of the Macedonian economy
shows similar movements as in the previous
few months, but also indicates slight
deceleration of the activities. The annual
growth remains high and amounts to 8.4
index points, but there is a monthly decline
of 0.8 index points. The slight decline is led
by the decline of wages in manufacturing,
decline in number of issued construction
permits and drastic decline in imports of
machinery and equipment. The political
factors are not directly taken into account
when calculating the index, but their impact
may reflect upon some of its components,
especially the imports. hence, within the
time horizon of index forecast, six to nine
months, the economy may experience a
very small growth deceleration.

The diffused index of future economic
activity is an indicator of the share of the
components of the composite index of
future economic activity, which registered
increase for the month. According to this
index, in August 2015, 45 percent of the
components of the leading index registered
an increase. Such a positioning of the
index is in line with the projections of the
composite index for a slight deceleration of
the growth in the forecasting time span of
the index.

Source:

November 2015 9