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PERSPECTIVE
Zoran Jovanovski
eConoMiC growth of
7 perCent for 25 yeArs
in A row?
The public often points out 30 years!), where the longest period was
that the macedonian econ- registered in Botswana and china (45
omy should grow by annual and 46 years, respectively!).
rates of at least 6 percent.
Perceiving this as a wish, i such a fast growth over such a long
believe there is no one who would not uninterrupted period, what does it
like that to happen. Actually, only with bring? Fast growth of per capita income.
a fast growth, faster than the growth of if at the beginning of the period of such
eU, we can eliminate sooner the existing a fast growth the per capita income in S.
large gap between the macedonian and korea was UsD 1,100, at the end of the
the European economy. My question is: period it reached USD 13,200, in Japan it
do those who talk about such a growth increased from UsD 3,500 to UsD 39,600,
believe that we can achieve it and keep it in singapore from UsD 2,200 to UsD
for two, three, five or more years? Let me 25,400, in china from UsD 105 to UsD
take another step further. Is it possible 1,400. In the case of China, let us point
for an economy in the world to grow at out that these figures do not include the
annual growth rates of at least 7 percent effects of the fast growth in the period
for a period of 25 years in a row? The after 2006.
short answer is: yes, it is possible. That
is what a study of the world Bank from what is this group of countries char-
2008, called Growth Report, showed. acterized by? It is a heterogeneous group.
The biggest similarity is that nine of
There are thirteen countries in the these countries come from asia, but the
world that have had economic growth countries in the group differ with regard
of at least 7 percent (some of them even to other attributes. There are small and
faster growth) continuously in periods of large ones, those that are rich in natu-
at least 25 years within the time period ral resources, like oil, and those that do
from the end of WWII until 2006. Those not have them, countries with an access
countries are: Botswana (africa), Brazil to the sea and countries that are land-
(S. America), Malta (Europe), Oman, (Mid- locked, etc. Under such circumstances,
dle east), china, hong kong, indonesia, the key question is whether these coun-
Japan, S. Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and tries have something in common with
Thailand (all from Asia). As a compari- regard to the conduct of economic poli-
son, the shortest period of such a fast cies, whether there are certain common
economic growth was registered in Bra- factors that enable such a fast growth
zil and malaysia (each of the countries – over such a long period of time? That is
exactly the focus of the world Bank, to
14 November 2015
