Page 71 - Ekonomija i Biznis_noemvri 2015.indd
P. 71
WORLD
T he Trans-Pacific Partnership TPP. China is likely to gravitate towards
(TPP) is by far the biggest Free Russia, Turkey, Central Asia, and Africa.
Trade Agreement (FTA) in his- Latin America is already effectively in-
tory. It incorporates 12 coun- tegrated with the economy of the USA.
tries with a combined Gross Only the EU is left out in the cold.
Domestic Product (GDP) equal to roughly
40% of the global economy and exports The EU will face unfair competition in
and imports which amount to about critical Asian export markets: lower tar-
35% of the world’s total, or $28 trillion. iffs for TPP members, higher tariffs for
In the vast territories the TPP brought EU products, commodities, and goods.
together there are 800 million, mostly Some European agricultural goods will
young, inhabitants. The USA, Canada, be banned altogether!
Japan, Australia, Mexico, Malaysia, and
Singapore are among its signatories. Europe’s economies rely on exports.
Exports equal between 40-70% of the
The TPP will lower or abolish more GDP of many key members of the EU
than 18,000 bilateral tariffs, especially (Germany, Italy, Spain, France, UK) -
on agricultural goods. It establishes a compared to 13% of GDP for the USA.
common framework to tackle intellec- The figures are even higher for non-EU
tual property rights, including industri- members such as Macedonia. Any de-
al patents and drug licenses. It opens up cline in exports to Asia will inexorably
this vast territory to professionals and lead to long-term economic stagnation,
providers of services. It puts in place deflation, and massive social unrest in
labour and environmental standards. It the EU. It may even prove to be a coup
also creates a dispute settlement mech- de grace to this ill-fated experiment at
anism accessible to individual and cor- European integration, in the wake of
porate foreign investors. the migrant crisis, the euro crisis, the
looming pension crisis, and the surging
In its current form, the TPP under- anti-EU sentiment within its member
mines the rules and regulations of the states, old and new alike.
World Trade Organization (WTO) as
promulgated in the Uruguay round of Macedonia must immediately start to
talks in 1995. It is, therefore, a direct diversify its export markets. Currently,
challenge to the current multilateral re- about three fifths of its exports and im-
gime of international trade. It is likely to ports are to and from European desti-
lead to the fragmentation of global trade nations. It must urgently begin to look
into competing, insular blocs, each with elsewhere: Asia, the Middle East, Africa,
its own protectionist policies. even the pacific and North America. It
must move away from tangible, physical
The TPP is also a major step back- goods to digital products and intellectu-
ward, mainly because it excludes China al property which can be sold anywhere
and the European Union (EU). The EU instantaneously and to tourism. Mace-
has a free trade agreement with the donia cannot rely on Europe anymore. It
USA (called TTIP – Transatlantic Trade is no longer the important global player
and Investment Partnership), but it is that it used to be.
nowhere near as comprehensive as the
November 2015 71
