Page 57 - Ekonomija i Biznis_juli-avgust 2016.indd

БАНКРАУРБСРТИВКОА

The price of the capital in
the short run is expected to
increase as a result of the
uncertainties related to the
performances of the economy.
These uncertainties are
expected to affect higher risk
premiums, as well as on the debt
securities and shares, as well
as a higher required yield of
the government securities. The
exchange rate of the British
pound (GBP) compared to the
Euro is already a collateral
damage of this uncertainty

(photo: businesstimes.com.sg)

the British pound up to 25% compared still very unclear what non-tariff bar-
to the other reserve currencies. The riers may arise, especially in the part
reduction of the value of the British of services where the common market
pound in the short run is expected to is still in a stage of definition.
lead to an increase of the inflation. In
this instance it is difficult to stipulate Public finance are also expected
the future steps of the Bank of Eng- to suffer if an exit from the EU takes
land. The past experience shows that place. The expectations for reduction
the Bank of England did not react to of the economic activity and fall of the
the temporary inflationary pressures, GDP are expected to affect the income
however it is quite a certain scenario of the country. The reduction of the
that in conditions of expressed infla- income is estimated to an amount of
tionary pressures that are embedded 1.5% to 2.25%. In 2014, the total contri-
in the economy, it will react with an butions in the budget of the EU were
increase of the interest rate in order an amount of 14.1 billion Euros, while
to maintain the inflation at the target the inflows from the budget were an
level of 2%. amount of 7.1 billion Euros, which
means that on net basis the contribu-
Depending on the scenarios of the tions of the United Kingdom are as-
course of negotiations for free trade sessed to slightly more than 5% of the
with the other countries, from today’s total budget of the EU. Therefore, in
perspective, the analysts expect a fall case when the United Kingdom leaves
in trade between 5% and 10%. Half the EU, the net positive effect for the
of the trade of the United Kingdom budget would be approximately 0.5% of
is with the EU, while the other half last year’s GDP.
belongs to trade with the rest of the
world. If the United Kingdom stays in The uncertainty of the way of func-
the European Economic Area, it can tioning of the economy and its rela-
maintain the existing trade relations tions after the eventual abandoning
within the World Trade Organization, of the EU, taking into consideration
and the tariffs for most privileged na- all previously indicated implications,
tion with the EU states, however it is are also expected to affect is growth.
In average, the expectations are that

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