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The composite leading index forecasts LEADING INDICATORS
the Macedonian economy by combining
indicators that are believed to lead the LEADING COMPOSITE
economic activity with a forecasting period INDEX OF THE
of approximately six months in advance.
Some of the indicators combined by this MACEDONIAN ECONOMY
index are: the number of unemployed
persons who register for monetary Leading Composite Index
compensation, the number of issued
approvals for construction purposes, the Diffused index of future economic activity
index of new orders in manufacturing, the
loans extended to the companies, the
imports of machinery and equipment, etc.
In June 2015, the leading composite index
of the Macedonian economy shows similar
tendencies as in the previous few months.
The annual growth is high and amounts
to 9.3 index points, whereas the monthly
increase is positive but stagnant and equals
1.1 index points. Hence, the claim from the
previous months still holds: in the next six to
nine months the growth of the Macedonian
economy will remain at the current level,
with norapid acceleration. Having in mind
that political factors are not directly taken
into account when calculating the index,
one should bear in mind the risk of slight
overshooting of the economic activity by
the index.
The diffused index of future economic
activity is an indicator of the share of the
components of the composite indexof
future economic activity, which registered
increase for the month. According to this
index, in June 2015, 55 percent of the
components of the leading index registered
an increase. Such a positioning of the
indexis in line with the predictions of the
composite index for the growth having solid
grounds in the forecasting timespan of the
index.

Source:
www.financethink.mk

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