Page 56 - Ekonomija i Biznis_oktomvri 2016.indd

РУБРИКАReview 2: Growth of tax revenues

for the period 2004 – the first half of 2016

Let us clarify that export is not encumbered
by value added tax, excises and customs, and
for this reason it will not bring indirect taxes
in the Budget. This should be done by tax bonds
with the turnover in this country and the add-
ed value/profit which would be taxed.

For the sake of truth, taxes were collected
with increased growth rates in the past.

The average growth of collection of the to-
tal tax revenues in the past 12 years is 6.23%.
There is a deviation in 2007, 2008, 2011 and
2014. The growth of the total tax revenues
ending with 2008 relied on the growth of the
economy. This was followed by the change of
specific segments from the tax system, mostly
for fiscal purposes, such is the example with
2014 and 2016.

Graph 1: Annual collection of taxes performed by the Public Revenue Let us illustrate several recent examples:
Office (2003-15) 2015
- For 2015 the realized CAPITAL GAIN TAX in
It includes: income tax, personal income tax and value added tax the Budget had increased by 238% compared to
the realization for 2014!?
are too optimistic. In such planned growth of - The planned income from this tax in the
tax revenues, the participation of VAT, excises first unbalanced budget was realized as early
and customs is important: as in April 2015, and the final striking outpace
in regard to the initial plan exceeded 400 %!?
- the personal income tax should achieve a - The VAT revenues in 2015 compared to the
growth of 9.3 %, ones in 2014 were lower by 5 %!?
Clarification: The increased revenues from
- income tax, a growth of 16.1 %, capital gain tax were a result of the changed
- VAT, growth of 10 %, regime of establishment of the tax basis with
- excises, growth of 12.7 % and re-inclusion of the financial result in the basis.
- customs, growth of 2.5 %. Second quarter of 2016
- For the first half of 2016, the realized in-
come from the CAPITAL GAIN TAX is LOWER
by 25% compared to the realization for 2015!!??
- The VAT revenues in the first half of 2016
compared to the ones in 2015 have increased
by 19 %!?
The income tax in 2016 “failed” due to the
high basis for comparison from 2015, while
VAT has been collected for a fifth more due to
the reduced registration threshold by 100% and
the inclusion of many new bonds in the VAT re-
gime.
In the end, let us point out that all surprises
and deviations in the planned budget amounts
are not a surprise for the experts, rather only a
consequence of related reasons. Indeed, as we
said in the beginning, “There is no coincidence
in economics – the direction of movement of
trends can always be foreseen”.

56 October 2016