Page 55 - Ekonomija i Biznis_oktomvri 2016.indd

Review 1: Structure of the proposed Budget of the Republic of Macedonia for 2017 ECРУOБNРOИMКYА

it is more than 12% of the budget rev-
enue.

In order to plan the budget well, Short “saga” about the
we need real assumptions, and not capital expenditures
a list of wishes. The conjuncture of
the economy and the tax regime are Capital expenditures have a spe-
the two most important factors for cial position in the budget balance,
realization of tax revenues, and the as a domestic buffer of the relation:
expenses are given with specific legal negative difference between the total
rules. Is there a dose of wishes which revenues and the current expenses.
cannot be realized in the Macedonian Actually, the capital expenditures
draft-budget for 2017? It seems that are a buffer zone where the eventu-
the planners this time again did not ally poor realization of the budget
adhere to a reasonable form of con- income in conditions of determined
servatism, even prudence we could financing of the budget deficit is lev-
say, in the preparation of the draft eled.
budget. Let us look at the budget
numbers and the conclusions that For this reason, when budget reve-
arise from them. nues are outpaced, there is a possibil-
ity to increase the capital expenses,
The Budget structure for 2017 is and vice versa, the poorly realized
not different than the one for 2016. budget revenues decrease the real-
There is a small deviation in the ization of capital expenditures. The
participation of tax revenues in the point of departure of such rule of
total budget revenues, which has in- budgeting is that the current budget
creased by 1 percentage point and of expenses by default do not provide an
the capital expenditures which have opportunity for a reduction without
greater share in the total expenses any form of social shocks. This “gold-
by 1.5 percentage point. With such en rule” of the Macedonian budgets
an increase from both sides of the is also confirmed for 2016. Namely,
budget balance, the budget deficit is ending with July, the capital expen-
maintained to about ten percent of ditures are performed with less than
the planned budget revenue. In 2016 35%.

This trend cannot be changed be-
cause with the budget money (which
is counted after all) FIRST social
peace must be “bought”: by paying
salaries, social transfers, as well as
payment of interests for old loans…
For capital expenditures – what is
left!

Is the planned growth of tax
revenues of 9.5% for 2017 real?

Considering the planned growth
of the GDP of 3% for 2017, as well as
the assumptions that this growth
will rely on the growth of export by
6%, we will freely conclude that the
assumptions for an increased collec-
tion of income tax for 2017 of 9.5%

October 2016 55