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ОБРAУАvСeБНrИaРКgГИeАУCРКРuАСУmТВulВАatОЊiveЕDefault Rates: 1995-2014
Source: Fitch Ratings
to more than 40% of the GDP in 2016.
When one speaks of the dynamics of
growth of the public debt, it is inter-
esting to mention another parameter
where Macedonia’s case is significantly
worse compared to the median of the
countries ranked with “BB” rating.
Namely, the amount of debt which ma-
tures annually is estimated as 10.8% of
the GDP, that is, 2 times higher than
the medial value of the “BB” ranked
countries. On the account of the pub-
lic debt in addition the agency adds
the guarantees given for the public
and the state enterprises which are
estimated to reach 9.7% of the GDP in
2016, whereby the total value of the
public debt is becoming closer to the
median for the “BB” ranked countries.
In its essence, the credit rating is
an assessment of the rating agency
of the creditworthiness of a country.
The credit rating agencies, in accor-
The three-year cumulative transition matrix shows that there is 22.2%
probability that the rating of a “BB” ranked country will be exacerbated in
the following period of three-years into “BB-” (11.1%), that is into “B+” (11.1%)
32 October 2016
dance with the regulations according
to which they work, are obliged once
a year to publish studies where they
provide information on the stability
of the awarded credit ratings and the
probabilities of default mapped in ac-
cordance with their ratings. In accor-
dance with this, FitchRatings Global
Sovereign 2014 Transition and Default
Study, the five-year cumulative rate of
default for the countries ranked with
“BB” rating is 6.35%. This would imply
that the countries ranked with “BB”
rating in average in 100 years, 6.35
times do not manage to pay their ob-
ligations to the creditors, that is, they
enter into bankruptcy.
The three-year cumulative transi-
tion matrix shows that there is 22.2%
probability that the rating of a “BB”
ranked country will be exacerbated in
the following period of three-years into
“BB-” (11.1%), that is into “B+” (11.1%).