Page 31 - Ekonomija i Biznis_oktomvri 2016.indd

БАНКРАУРБСРТИВКОА

(фото: http://report.az/) The debtors with “BB”
rating are not expected
not to respond to their
obligations in the short
run, however the rating
gives an indication of
an increased risk due
to non-payment of
obligations, particularly
in case of unfavorable
changes of the general
business, economic and
political conditions

a one-year forecast in order to get the last borrowing of this country in the
long-term rating in foreign currency. international financial market are also
Although the internal model, being factors that the agency’s rating reduc-
used by the agency Fitch Ratings, for tion is based on.
prediction of the credit rating in Mace-
donia’s specific ranking was confirmed The assessment of the rating agency
by the rating “BB+”, on the basis of the is that the growth of the economy in
framework for qualitative assessment, 2016 would be 2.5% or 1.1 percentage
the so called Qualitative Overlay, the points lower than the previous projec-
rating has been reduced from one level tion. Compared to the referential me-
of “BB” in order to accordingly cover dian values for “BB” ranked countries
the risks related to the prolonged po- from this agency, the projection for
litical crisis and the country’s manage- the growth of the economy is below
ment, inappropriately covered by the the medial value of 3.5%. The credit
quantitative model. agency specifically indicates that the
driver of risk is the increase of public
By explaining the change of the rat- debt and the already usual practice of
ing, the credit rating agency indicates overcoming the stipulated fiscal goals.
several key reasons that the reduction Namely, the expectations of the credit
is based on, with an emphasis on the agency are that this country in 2016
prolonged political crisis and the prob- will once again exceed the stipulated
lems in the fulfillment of the Przino budget deficit of 3.6% of the GDP, that
Contract. The reduced growth of the is, the budget deficit will be 3.8% of the
economy in the first quarter of this GDP. Although the amount of the pub-
year, the revised projections for growth lic debt is lower than the medial value
for this and the next year, the panic on for “BB” ranked countries (51% of the
the foreign currency market and the GDP), still the credit agency puts an
withdrawal of the foreign currencies emphasis on the dynamics of growth
from the banking system in April this of the public debt, as well as the ex-
year, the reduced investment activity, pectations for its further growth. It
as well as the reduced budget revenues also indicates that the public debt has
and the increased public debt after the increased from 34% of the GDP in 2012

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