Page 9 - Ekonomija i Biznis_septemvri 2016.indd

The leading composite index predicts LEADING COMPOSITE INDEX
the economic activity on the basis of
combination of indicators that are ПРВИ ЗНАЦИ НА
considered predecessors of the economic ЗАБАВУВАЊЕ НА
activity with a prognosis period of МАКЕДОНСКАТА
approximately six months in advance.
Some indicators combined with this ЕКОНОМИЈА
index include the following: number of
unemployed people who are registered for a LEADING COMPOSITE INDEX
remuneration, issued construction permits,
index of new orders in the manufacturing DIFFUSE INDEX OF FUTURE ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
industry, loan placed on enterprises, import
of machines and equipment etc.
In may 2016 the leading composite index
for prognosis of the future economic
activity shows the first signs of weakness
in a month where the seasonal impacts are
less pronounced. The monthly dynamics of
the index declined with 2 index points, while
the annual dynamics experienced a growth
of 5.5 index points, which is a significant
deceleration. The impaired condition of the
import of machines and equipment and the
narrowing of the interest span is the main
driver of these movements. In their opinion,
the economy may experience further
deceleration by the end of this year.
The diffuse index of the future economic
activity is an indicator of the share of the
composite index components for the future
economic activity, which increased during
the month. According to this index, in may
2016, more than half of the components
reduced.

Source: by order of Economy and business.
www.financethink.mk

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