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РBУAБNРKИINКGА
el. Thereby quarterly data for the pe- agnosis of the potential market distor-
riod 2003Q4 – 2014Q4 have been used. tions and taking timely measures for
their prevention. At the same time,
The conclusions from the paper can they should direct the banks towards
help to develop a framework for as- better risk management thereby tak-
sessment and measurement of credit ing into consideration the individual
risk of banks, which is particularly characteristics of the specific banks. In
important in terms of the monetary this regard, the understanding of the
power for the objectives of the finan- main factors that move the credit risk
cial stability in the country. Thereby is crucial. Of course, the banking sys-
the econometric relations obtained in tem cannot fully eliminate the credit
this paper can be applied for prognosis risk that it is facing considering that
of the future movements of the non- the risk is an inseparable part of every
performing loans, and also for stress profit bearing activity, and particular-
test, not only by the banking system as ly not the risk which is a result of the
a whole, but also at the level of indi- macroeconomic conditions. Of course,
vidual banks which operate in Mace- the understanding of the banking spe-
donia. During a stress test, for ex- cific factors which amplify or reduce
ample, different alternative scenarios the effect of the economic movements
can be used, when the reaction of non-
Although the credit risk of the banks is affected by the
economic cycle and the real relations between production,
income and savings, to some extent it may be managed through
adequate dimensioning of the credit demand and the structure
of the debits and credits of the bank, which also has
statistically important impact on nonperforming loans
performing loans would be monitored, can prevent sudden increase of the
both in enterprises and in households credit risk, thereby it can prevent the
during differently sized changes of negative feedback between the finan-
their established determinants. cial sector and the real economy.
Although the credit risk of the banks As a direction for the future re-
is affected by the economic cycle and searches which will research this
the real relations between production, problem, in addition to the relation
income and savings, to some extent it of nonperforming loans with the to-
may be managed through adequate di- tal loans as a measure of credit risk, it
mensioning of the credit demand and would be good to also use the change
the structure of the debits and credits of the condition of nonperforming
of the bank, which also has statistical- loans or the reservations on the basis
ly important impact on nonperforming of losses from uncollected loans. In
loans. In this regard, monetary power addition, in future researches break-
is important, that is, the regulatory down of nonperforming loans can
authorities should provide an appro- also be performed in the enterprises
priate environment for maintenance according to the type of activity, that
of the stability and the soundness of is, according to the type of loan in the
the banking system through timely di- households.
68 September 2016
