Page 9 - Ekonomija i Biznis_juli-avgust 2016.indd

Leading composite index

The leading composite index predicts High annual growth
the economic activity on the basis of of the index
combination of indicators that are
considered predecessors of the economic
activity with a prognosis period of
approximately six months in advance.
Some indicators combined with this
index include the following: number of
unemployed people who are registered for a
remuneration, issued construction permits,
index of new orders in the manufacturing
industry, loans to enterprises, import of
machines and equipment etc.

Leading composite index

The leading composite index continues
the path from the previous months, with
insignificant monthly growth, however
relatively high annual growth. In April
2016, the monthly growth is 1.5 index
points, while the annual growth is 7.8 index
points. According to these data, the index
cannot reflect effects from the political
crisis, therefrom it cannot cover its entire
influence. It suggests that the foundations
of the economy, beyond the effect of the
political crisis, remain stable in the time
span of prognosis of the index from 6 to 9
months.

Diffuse index of future economic activity

The diffuse index of the future economic
activity is an indicator of the share of the
composite index components for the future
economic activity, which increased during
the month. According to this index, in April
2016, same as in March 2016, almost half of
the components increased.

Source: by order of Economy and Business.
www.financethink.mk

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